The Creighton University Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) plummeted in April to its lowest level since beginning the survey in January 2006. According to the monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy, this represented the second straight record low with a reading well below growth neutral.
April Survey Results at a Glance:
- The overall index falls to lowest level since beginning survey in January 2006.
- More than nine of 10 bank CEOs expect the coronavirus to push their local area into a recession.
- Approximately 94% of bankers reported a decline in client or customer visits over the past two weeks as a result of the coronavirus.
- Almost one-third, or 30.3%, indicated that their bank had experienced higher loan delinquency rates resulting from the coronavirus threat.
- U.S. Department of Labor’s reported initial claims for unemployment benefits for the last two weeks for the nine-state region, urban plus rural, were 1,226,370 which was a 29-fold expansion from the same period in 2019.
Overall: The overall index for April slumped to 12.1 from 35.5 in March. April’s decline represents the largest one month fall since the survey was initiated in January 2006.
“More than nine of 10 bank CEOs expect the coronavirus to produce a recession in their market area. This is up significantly from March when 61.3 percent of bankers anticipated such a recession,” said Ernie Goss, PhD, Jack A. MacAllister Chair in Regional Economics at Creighton University’s Heider College of Business.